AI to Drive Market Performance in H2 2026, Survey Finds

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is poised to be the primary driver of market performance in the latter half of 2026, overriding concerns about geopolitical uncertainty and persistent inflation, according to a new survey of Natixis Investment Managers strategists. Nine out of ten strategists surveyed believe AI will be the key factor shaping market outcomes.

The strategists anticipate significant acceleration in the AI sector, with 88% expecting productivity gains from AI to translate into higher corporate profits. However, concerns persist regarding AI-driven volatility and concentration risk. A substantial majority of strategists (85%) highlighted concentration risk as a medium to high concern, noting that a small number of AI companies are disproportionately influencing market returns.

Inflation remains a significant risk heading into the second half of the year, with 97% of strategists ranking it as a medium or high risk. This is partly attributed to energy price spikes linked to geopolitical tensions. Geopolitical risks themselves, including potential escalations and new conflicts, are also identified as key concerns by a majority of respondents.

Despite these headwinds, Natixis strategists identify opportunities in the market. US equities are expected to outperform, with 67% of strategists anticipating this trend. Additionally, over half of the respondents believe concerns about private credit have been overstated.