Allianz Index Shows Diverging Social Resilience, Middle-Resilience Trap Emerging

The 2025 Allianz Social Resilience Index (SRI) recorded a modest global average increase, rising to 47.9 from 47.4 on a 0-100 scale. This improvement was driven by reduced imported inflation and greater currency stability, particularly in Emerging Asia and several advanced economies. Firmer governance in parts of Eastern Europe and Emerging Asia also contributed to the rise.

However, underlying divergence remains pronounced. Weaker social cohesion in the Middle East, Emerging Europe, and high-income countries continued to weigh on overall social resilience. Northern European economies, led by Finland (84.3), Denmark (83.8), and Iceland (81.4), maintained their top positions.

Allianz identifies a potential "middle-resilience trap" for some economies. Advanced nations consistently scoring between 65-70, including the US, Italy, and Japan, are showing signs of increased political polarization and policy volatility, risking prolonged stagnation, weaker reform capacity, and declining policy predictability.

The report cautions that geopolitical events, such as the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on energy prices, will test societies' ability to cope. Countries with low-to-mid resilience and high exposure to energy price shocks could see these translate into significant social pressures.

Social resilience is presented as critical for macroeconomic performance, capital market development, and sovereign risk assessment. The SRI serves as an early-warning system and a guide for reform. Higher resilience correlates with stronger economic growth and more stable capital markets, according to the report.