Allianz Trade: Middle East conflict to add 15,000 business insolvencies

Allianz Trade, a leader in trade credit insurance, has released its latest Insolvency Report, projecting that the Middle East conflict will directly contribute to an additional 15,000 business insolvencies worldwide in 2026 and 2027. The report anticipates a 6% increase in global business insolvencies for 2026, marking a fifth consecutive year of rising rates.

The conflict has amplified volatility in energy markets, shipping costs, and global supply chains. Allianz Trade's CEO Aylin Somersan Coqui stated that the crisis is driving up costs across global value chains and intensifying pressure on energy-intensive sectors. Beyond immediate disruptions, second-round effects include accelerating inflation, tighter financial conditions, and deteriorating business confidence. The direct toll from the conflict is estimated to add 7,000 insolvencies in 2026 and 7,900 in 2027 compared to pre-crisis forecasts.

Should the conflict escalate and lead to sustained disruption, such as a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, global insolvencies could surge by 10% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. This scenario, outlined by Maxime Lemerle, Lead Analyst for Insolvency Research at Allianz Trade, would translate to approximately 4,100 additional cases in the United States and 10,500 in Western Europe over the 2026–2027 period.

The projected rise in insolvencies could also impact employment significantly. The 6% increase in global insolvencies for 2026 is estimated to put 2.2 million jobs at risk, an increase of 94,000 compared to 2025. The construction, retail, and services sectors are expected to be the most affected. Europe is anticipated to see the highest number of jobs at risk, with an estimated 1.3 million potentially impacted. Allianz Trade is headquartered in Paris and operates in over 40 countries.