Allianz Trade Outlook: Global Growth Slows to 2.5% Supported by AI

Allianz Trade, a global leader in credit insurance, has released its mid-year economic outlook for 2026-2027. The report forecasts global economic growth to decelerate to 2.5% in 2026, with a subsequent rebound to 2.9% in 2027. This projection remains largely in line with previous baseline scenarios, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and energy shocks.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as a significant driver expected to prop up the global economy, offsetting drag from the energy shock and trade war. However, consumer purchasing power is not anticipated to recover until Q4 2026, and corporate profitability remains exposed. The US economy is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2026, bolstered by energy exports, a low savings rate, and AI investments.

The Eurozone (excluding Ireland) is expected to experience slower growth, at 0.9% in 2026, recovering to 1.2% in 2027. Growth in the region is held back by higher energy dependence and a less pronounced AI offset. Germany needs bold reforms to stimulate its economy. China is expected to remain resilient with 4.7% growth, driven by exports and high-tech manufacturing, though domestic demand weakness and US tariffs pose headwinds.

Global goods trade is forecast to avoid recession, growing by 2.9% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027. The report notes a reloading of the US trade war with tariffs increasing, impacting trade volumes. Inflation is projected to moderate significantly, with major economies expected to reach their inflation targets by 2027 as oil prices normalize.

For corporations, the outlook warns that while earnings showed positive growth in early 2026, profitability pressures may build later. Global insolvencies are anticipated to increase by 4% in 2026 before plateauing in 2027. Allianz Trade emphasizes AI's role in supporting growth but cautions about its concentrated nature and potential downside risks if delivery disappoints.