Allianz Trade Survey: Companies Expect Export Growth Despite Middle East Conflict

According to the 2026 Allianz Trade Global Survey, 75% of surveyed companies expect positive export growth in 2026, indicating resilient outlooks despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The survey, which polled 6,000 companies across 13 markets in February and March 2026, suggests that while the conflict has reshuffled the global risk map following a year of trade war, it has not fundamentally derailed export expansion expectations.

Despite sustained optimism, the conflict has tightened trade finance conditions. Payment cycles are lengthening, and non-payment risk is anticipated to rise, particularly in the pharmaceutical, construction, and computer/telecom sectors. Geopolitical and political risks have emerged as the leading global threat for 65% of companies, surpassing supply chain complexity, which was the primary concern in 2025.

In response to supply chain disruptions experienced since 2025, businesses have implemented mitigation strategies. Inventory building and diversification to new markets are common, alongside sourcing from new suppliers and rerouting logistics to bypass trade frictions. Companies are actively seeking alternative shipping routes and carriers, and working with customs brokers to expedite clearance processes.

Europe and Asia are emerging as key regions for future export growth. Companies are prioritizing stability and market openness, with interest in Europe as an export destination increasing, particularly among Singaporean and US exporters. New trade agreements are supporting growth opportunities, though non-tariff barriers remain a significant constraint on translating trade access into actual export expansion.