Allianz Trade Upgrades 48 Country Risk Ratings in 2024, Warns of Future Challenges

Allianz Trade released its second Country Risk Atlas in February 2025, revealing a significant improvement in global country risk ratings during 2024. The company upgraded 48 economies, more than doubling the number of upgrades from the previous year, while only downgrading five. These upgrades, which account for approximately 17% of global GDP, were predominantly seen in emerging markets across Latin America, Eastern Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region.

Despite the positive shift, global trade credit insurance leader Allianz Trade cautions against complacency. Economists Luca Moneta and Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade, highlight that geopolitical tensions, trade war risks, and increasing polarization could quickly reverse the current positive momentum. Lower-income countries, in particular, continue to face less conducive business conditions.

The report indicates that many of last year's upgrades are based on short-term indicators, suggesting the improvements are cyclical and potentially reversible. Businesses are advised to remain vigilant in their growth strategies as supply chains become more complex and protectionism rises. The company stresses the importance of monitoring country risk amid these evolving global dynamics.

Allianz Trade calls on policymakers to address the widening trust deficit and mitigate polarization risks. Heightened social divisions and a lack of confidence can lead to economic instability, potentially leaving businesses in a prolonged state of "wait and see." The firm offers insights and tools to help companies navigate these risks in international trade.