Analyst: Apple's Foldable iPhone to Launch Later, Face Supply Shortages
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicts Apple's first foldable iPhone will mirror the iPhone X launch, featuring a joint announcement, delayed sales, and initial supply constraints lasting into year-end.
Apple's anticipated foldable iPhone may follow a script similar to the 2017 iPhone X launch, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. The prediction suggests a joint announcement with other models, followed by a delayed sales start and constrained supply extending through the end of 2026.
Kuo estimates that shipments for the foldable iPhone in the second half of 2026 will be around 7 to 8 million units. A significant portion, approximately 500,000 to 1 million units, are projected for the third quarter of 2026. This volume is considerably lower than the estimated 20 to 22 million units for the iPhone 18 Pro models expected during the same period.
The foldable iPhone's situation, with limited third-quarter 2026 shipments, could mirror the iPhone X's production challenges. The iPhone X, notable for its innovative OLED display and Face ID, was announced in September 2017 but only became available for pre-order in late October and shipped in early November, due to manufacturing difficulties.
Despite an estimated price point of $2,300 to $2,500, demand for the foldable iPhone is expected to remain strong into late 2026. Kuo anticipates immediate sell-outs upon pre-order availability, with delivery wait times potentially stretching to four to six weeks or longer. This scenario could create opportunities for resellers to mark up prices significantly in the initial sales period.
Kuo suggests that true demand for the foldable iPhone will become clearer in late 2026 or early 2027, after the initial excitement and supply limitations subside and production stabilizes. This timeframe will offer a better perspective on the product's sustained market appeal beyond launch-phase factors.