Atradius: Stagflation Risk Contained by Middle East Truce
Atradius' latest economic outlook suggests the risk of a severe stagflation shock has been contained for now, due to a Middle East ceasefire easing energy price pressures. Global GDP growth is forecast to slow.
Amsterdam, July 14, 2026 – The risk of a more severe stagflation shock has been contained for now, according to Atradius' latest Economic Outlook. A ceasefire between the US and Iran has helped ease pressure on energy prices following months of disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. Atradius forecasts global GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026, down from 3.0% in 2025, before recovering to 3.1% in 2027.
While the conflict weighed on economic activity through higher energy and commodity costs, the baseline outlook assumes a gradual reopening of the strait, helping the global economy avoid a sharper downturn. Continued investment in technology and AI is also helping to cushion the impact.
Strong spending on data centers, semiconductor manufacturing, cloud infrastructure, and related technologies continues to underpin growth, particularly in the US. AI-related trade also remains an important driver of international commerce.
The energy shock has prompted varied responses from central banks. The European Central Bank has raised interest rates to curb inflation, while the US Federal Reserve is maintaining higher rates for longer. China, conversely, continues a moderately loose monetary stance to support domestic demand.
Atradius warns that risks remain tilted to the downside. The main threat is a re-escalation of the conflict, which could cause energy prices to surge again and push global GDP growth into recessionary territory.