Bantleon: Economic Growth to Support Stock Markets in 2026

Investment firm Hermann Bantleon GmbH anticipates strong global economic growth in 2026. The company expects a cyclical recovery in Europe to gain momentum throughout the year, despite a brief slowdown in the U.S. and China at the turn of 2025/26.

Despite this, and in light of partly record-high valuations, Bantleon sees continued upside potential in stock markets. This potential is expected to be more pronounced in Europe and Asia compared to the U.S. On bond markets, given rising inflation expectations, inflation-linked and corporate bonds are favored over nominal government bonds. Among commodities, gold and industrial metals are seen as attractive for significant price increases.

In the U.S., major technology companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet are planning substantial investments in artificial intelligence (AI). The U.S. government aims to establish a public AI infrastructure to secure global leadership. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to lower interest rates, providing an additional boost to investments. Bantleon forecasts U.S. economic growth at around 2.3% for 2026, exceeding the consensus expectation.

China's economy is expected to stabilize, with exports buffering a weaker private consumption and a downturn in the property sector. Although structural challenges persist, including an aging population and high debt levels, the government is planning new stimulus measures. Bantleon predicts a growth rebound in China towards 5% in the first half of 2026.

The firm believes the Fed is likely to implement one or at most two interest rate cuts in the coming months, bringing the key rate to a neutral level of approximately 3.50%. Additionally, Bantleon notes favorable prospects for price increases in gold and industrial metals.