Barclays: DDR4 Contract Memory Prices Rise Faster Than DDR5 Amid Shortage

Global memory shortages are intensifying, with contract prices for DDR4 memory chips rising by 4% month-on-month in October 2026, and accumulating a 24% increase over three months. This growth rate has surpassed the 20% increase seen for DDR5 memory chips during the same period, according to a recent Barclays report.

The report analyzes contract and spot prices for both DDR4 and DDR5 memory chips, forecasting that memory prices will remain elevated and continue their strong upward trend throughout 2026. Pricing structures for supply agreements are also shifting, moving away from fixed minimum and maximum price models to dynamic pricing that follows market fluctuations for new customers.

To mitigate supply constraints, chip designers are employing a strategy known as "de-speccing," which involves reducing product specifications or capacity to ease pressure on chip supply. While currently viewed as a temporary measure for short-term shortages, Barclays suggests this could evolve into a long-term trend if supply issues persist.

Further analysis from Citigroup indicates that supply gaps in the DRAM and NAND markets are expected to continue through 2028. Citigroup's supply-demand ratio data projects the DRAM deficit to peak at 13.9% in the fourth quarter of 2027, and the NAND deficit to reach 8.3% in the first quarter of 2028.