Chinese author Can Xue leads odds for 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature

Chinese author Can Xue has once again emerged as the leading favorite to win the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature, based on current betting odds. The writer's prominent position has also generated significant discussion on social media platforms.

As of October 6, 2026, odds compiled by sites like Nicer Odds and Ladbrokes place Can Xue, whose real name is Deng Xiaohua, at the forefront with odds of 10/1. She has been a consistent contender in these predictions for several years.

Speculation surrounding Can Xue's chances is amplified by the perceived pattern of alternating genders among recent Nobel laureates in literature, with the prize not having been awarded to a woman since Olga Tokarczuk in 2018. This perceived trend could favor a female candidate this year.

Japanese author Haruki Murakami, another perennial favorite, follows at second place with odds of 14/1. Other highly ranked authors include Australia's Gerald Murnane, the United States' Thomas Pynchon, and Mexico's Cristina Rivera Garza.

Can Xue, born Deng Xiaohua in 1953 in Changsha, is recognized as a key figure in contemporary Chinese avant-garde literature. Her works, including "The Cabin on the Mountain," "Yellow Mud Street," and "The Last Lover," have been translated into multiple languages and are studied at institutions like Harvard and Columbia. Despite international acclaim, including comparisons to Franz Kafka and praise from figures like Susan Sontag, her dreamlike and often abstract narrative style has resulted in more limited recognition among the general readership in China.