Climate-Focused Central Banking Policies May Hamper Canada's Energy Ambitions, Says Science Group
Friends of Science Society argues that central bank policies based on climate scenarios may hinder Canada's goal of becoming an energy superpower. The organization criticizes the climate models and economic scenarios used as scientifically flawed and outdated.
Canada's ambition to become an energy superpower in both conventional and so-called clean energy sectors may be hampered by "climate-addled" central bankers, according to the Friends of Science Society. The organization asserts that key financial institutions and regulators are relying on outdated and implausible climate science models and economic scenarios for evaluating energy projects.
On October 1, 2026, the same day Prime Minister Mark Carney declared the Pacific Link oil pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast a project of national interest, Friends of Science Society released an open letter. The letter criticizes the climate risk assessment methodologies employed by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) and the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). Friends of Science argues that the NGFS guide relies on climate scenarios like SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5, and RCP 8.5, which have been officially retired by the climate modeling community as implausible. Furthermore, a highly publicized 2025 study in NATURE, which projected significant costs from climate change, has since been retracted.
The Friends of Science Society contends that these flawed assessments are creating pressure on banks and insurance companies. This pressure aims to deny financing for conventional energy projects, impose higher interest rates, or mandate net-zero plans. The group cites Senator Rosa Galvez' "Climate Aligned Finance Act" (CAFA) and Royal Bank of Canada's (RBC) stance on net-zero as examples, suggesting RBC's position follows these scientifically unsound guidelines.
Professor Emeritus Vaclav Smil has stated that the complete decarbonization of the global energy supply is an undertaking of unprecedented scale and complexity, which will not be accomplished in a few decades even with sustained, dedicated, and extraordinarily costly commitment. Friends of Science Society emphasizes that energy security is national security and questions the direction of financial policy, which they believe risks undermining this foundation based on uncertain climate projections.