Economist: AI Threatens Different Jobs Than Predicted
New analysis finds management and technical roles are growing, while clerical and customer service positions are rapidly shrinking.
Occupations in management, engineering, science, and law, previously considered at high risk from artificial intelligence (AI), have continued to grow and in some cases accelerated over the past two years. New analysis by economist Gad Levanon, using government employment data, challenges earlier predictions.
Levanon's research found that, unexpectedly, it is the job categories not typically considered especially vulnerable to AI that have contracted most rapidly. These include roles such as records clerks, bookkeepers, and customer service staff.
To ensure the decline in clerical roles wasn't simply a byproduct of them residing within shrinking industries, Levanon measured each occupation's growth against the average growth across the sectors where it's found. This isolated occupational growth from surrounding industry trends.
The result held: clerical work is not shrinking because it happens to sit in a struggling sector. It is shrinking within sectors where managerial roles are expanding. "There is a difference between the tasks a professional performs, and the responsibility that comes with those tasks," said Rudy DeFelice, executive vice president and global head of AI strategy at Harbor Global. "AI currently automates portions of these jobs, but it does not automate the responsibility attached to them."