El Niño 2026 is strongest in 1,000 years, new research finds
New research from the University of Michigan indicates the 2026 El Niño event is the strongest recorded in a millennium. Analysis of fossilized corals reveals significant increases in sea surface temperature variability, signaling potential global weather impacts.
The 2026 El Niño event is the most powerful recorded in the last 1,000 years, according to new research from the University of Michigan. Scientists reconstructed ocean surface temperatures over the past millennium by examining fossilized corals in the Galápagos Islands.
The study, published in the journal Science, identified a substantial increase in the variability of sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared to previous paleorecords. This heightened variability parallels rising global temperatures and is linked to more intense El Niño events.
"We've been seeing some very strong El Niño events in the late 20th and early 21st century, and what we didn’t know was how unusual those are," said lead study author Julie Cole, an environmental scientist at the University of Michigan.
Cole noted that, on average, El Niño events have been stronger in the past 40 years than at any time in the past millennium, leading to more potent weather effects. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has also stated that El Niño is strengthening, predicting a greater than 90% chance of a "very strong event" in the Northern Hemisphere during the upcoming season.
The findings provide a long-term context for understanding the Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its impacts on ecosystems, infrastructure, and human populations. The research suggests potential for intensified storms and flooding in regions like the U.S. Southeast and Gulf Coast, alongside risks of drought and wildfires.