El Niño intensity reaches highest levels in 1,000 years
A new study published in Science reveals that El Niño events over the past 40 years have intensified by 36% compared to the preceding millennium, reaching unprecedented strength.
A significant shift in El Niño event intensity has occurred over the past 40 years, reaching the highest levels recorded in the last millennium, according to a new study led by the University of Michigan and published in the journal Science.
The research found that El Niño events since 1980 have been 36% stronger, on average, than during the period from 1000 to 1850. This increase in intensity is characterized by a notable rise in extreme temperature peaks.
To reconstruct this long-term climate record, scientists analyzed oxygen isotopes within deep coral cores collected from eleven tropical Pacific islands. These coral skeletons provide an annual resolution record of sea surface temperature and salinity, extending back 1,000 years.
Previously, precise instrumental records of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) only extended back 100 to 150 years, making it difficult to establish long-term trends. The new coral-based data offers a more comprehensive understanding of natural climate variability and the impact of modern warming.
The study highlights a concerning trend, with a further 16% increase in intensity observed within the last 40 years alone due to changes in the Pacific's warm layer. These findings underscore the potential for climate change to alter major climate patterns.