Electric Truck Charging Demand in Europe Estimated at 200 TWh by 2045

Battery-electric trucks in Europe may necessitate around 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) of charging energy per year by 2045, according to a joint study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) and the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI). The report highlights that this charging demand will likely concentrate at a limited number of logistics locations and along key highway corridors, necessitating precise regional grid planning.

The research analyzed the charging needs of heavy-duty trucks (over 12 tons) across 30 European countries, including the EU-27, the UK, Norway, and Switzerland. In a "moderate electrification scenario," which assumes full implementation of the Eurovignette directive and carbon pricing through EU ETS2, researchers forecast a charging demand of 100 TWh for 2035 and 200 TWh for 2045. A more conservative scenario, without additional policy support, projects these figures at 30 TWh and 75 TWh, respectively.

Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Italy are projected to account for the largest absolute energy volumes. The study anticipates a significant increase in battery-electric trucks, from approximately 460,000 vehicles in 2030 to over 3.45 million by 2045, representing about 56.5 percent of the total heavy-duty vehicle fleet in the EU-27. However, the researchers note that these projections are sensitive to factors such as market ramp-up, battery sizes, mileage, and the development of competing technologies like hydrogen or overhead catenary systems.

A key finding is that depot charging is expected to constitute the majority of energy demand in all countries and scenarios, typically exceeding 70–80 percent. This is attributed to regional trucks returning to their depots after routes for overnight charging at relatively low power. Public fast charging along highways remains essential, particularly for cross-border long-haul transport and for companies without their own depot charging facilities. In smaller transit countries, public charging could account for 30–50 percent of the total demand.