Europe's Forest Fire Risk Increases Significantly with Climate Change
A new study indicates that "fire weather" conditions will become more frequent across Europe, impacting previously low-risk areas. The trend is exacerbated by higher emissions and extreme weather.
The risk of forest fires in Europe is set to increase significantly in the coming decades, driven by rising global temperatures, according to a new study by the Senckenberg Centre for Biodiversity and Climate Research (SBiK-F) and its EU partners. The research predicts that "fire weather" – a combination of high temperatures, low humidity, minimal precipitation, and strong winds – will become more common even in regions previously considered at low risk, including parts of Central Europe and rapidly warming mountain areas.
The study, published in "Environmental Research Letters," utilized high-resolution climate models to project future fire risks. Even under a scenario with significant greenhouse gas emission reductions, the average summer weather-related forest fire risk in Europe is projected to increase by 24 percent by 2050 compared to the historical average. With higher emissions, the increase will be even more dramatic. Southern European countries like Greece, Spain, and Turkey are expected to face even more extreme conditions, while mountainous regions in Central and Northern Europe will also be increasingly threatened.
"We are seeing that areas not previously considered at risk of burning, such as the United Kingdom, have also been affected by fires in the past ten years," said Jessica Hetzer, lead author from SBiK-F. "This demonstrates how the trend is expanding." The researchers used tools like the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) to measure the intensity of fire weather. Beyond meteorological factors, the study also highlights the role of terrain and vegetation flammability, particularly in mountainous areas where complex topography can accelerate fire spread and hinder firefighting efforts.
The researchers emphasize the growing importance of prevention, early warning systems, and firefighting capabilities, even in areas previously unaffected. "In Central Europe, forest fire management has historically been a low priority, leaving some communities unprepared for periods of high fire risk," Hetzer noted. The study calls for incorporating fire awareness into urban planning and land management to protect both forests and surrounding communities.