Goldman Sachs Economist: AI May Displace 15 Million US Workers

Joseph Briggs, head of global economic research at Goldman Sachs, estimates that the increasing prevalence of artificial intelligence (AI) in the United States could cause around 9% of the workforce, approximately 15 million individuals, to leave their current positions. However, Briggs suggests that these workers are likely to be reabsorbed into the labor market, and job opportunities will not permanently disappear.

Briggs draws a parallel between the potential impact of AI and the significant labor market shifts seen during the late 1990s and early 2000s due to technological advancements. He estimates that in sectors already adopting AI tools, such as technology, management consulting, and graphic design, AI could reduce the creation of new jobs by 10,000 to 15,000 per month in the US.

While some technology leaders have warned of permanent job losses due to AI, Briggs points out that technological progress historically also creates new occupations. He cites that roughly 85% of job growth over the past 80 years has stemmed from new roles created by technological advancements, indicating a potential for adaptation. The US labor market inherently involves constant flux, with about 30 million jobs being created and 29 million eliminated each year. Briggs calculates that a mere 5% increase in the job creation rate could be sufficient to absorb all workers transitioning due to AI.

Other experts, like MIT researcher Neil Thompson, believe AI's impact might not be as swift as feared. He notes that implementing AI involves data acquisition, cost-effectiveness, and regulatory hurdles, especially in sectors like healthcare. Thompson suggests that most professions are more likely to experience partial automation rather than complete elimination, with the extent of impact varying by specific tasks. Recent US employment figures have also shown signs of a slowdown.