Holiday Sales to Exceed $1 Trillion, Consumer Search Habits Shift Dramatically

U.S. holiday retail sales are set to exceed $1 trillion for the first time in November and December 2026, with an anticipated year-over-year growth of 4.5 percent. Consulting firm Bain & Company's forecast indicates that while this is a major milestone, over half of the nominal growth is attributed to inflation rather than an increase in the volume of goods purchased.

The more significant trend identified in the report concerns the changing search behavior of online shoppers. While Amazon remains the most common starting point for holiday searches, its share has slightly decreased from 73 percent in 2025 to 71 percent in 2026. Conversely, consumer engagement with retailer and brand-specific websites has grown substantially, rising from 51 percent to 60 percent.

A notable surge is observed in the use of AI platforms like ChatGPT and Google Gemini as initial search destinations, increasing from 17 percent to 24 percent. Furthermore, a distinct 13 percent of online shoppers now intend to utilize a retailer's proprietary AI shopping agent, a behavior that was negligible just a year prior.

This fragmentation divides the starting point for holiday shopping into three primary channels: major e-commerce platforms, direct brand websites, and AI-driven tools. The information provided by AI platforms and agents is derived from a different set of signals than traditional search results, including product reviews and third-party comparisons, which can diminish the influence of a brand's controlled content.

Retailers must adapt to this evolving consumer journey, recognizing that AI-powered discovery is becoming a critical, and less controllable, entry point into the customer's path to purchase.