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IDC forecasts 60% of enterprise AI workloads to move to open-source models by 2028

New data from IDC suggests organizations will shift toward open-source AI to control costs and mitigate vendor lock-in risks.

2 November 2026

A report from IDC indicates that by 2028, 60 percent of corporate AI workloads will operate on open-source models. The move is driven by a need to reduce inference costs and mitigate the risks associated with vendor lock-in, with early adopters expected to solve issues related to budget overruns in autonomous agent operations more effectively.

The findings show a significant shift for Global 2000 (G2000) companies, with 60 percent projected to run the majority of their business processes on an 'AI-first' basis by 2029, compared to only 13 percent currently. As these systems become more prevalent, IDC warns that failure to implement emergency shutdown mechanisms for AI agents could lead to a 25 percent increase in insurance premiums and heightened audit scrutiny.

Employment models are also expected to shift. By 2029, 30 percent of entry-level and mid-level roles at large organizations are predicted to transition toward the supervision and orchestration of AI agents. Interestingly, nearly half of mid-market firms anticipate increasing their headcount for entry-level roles over the next 18 months, suggesting that AI integration is currently viewed as a catalyst for role transformation rather than headcount reduction.

Original source: ithome.com