Morgan Stanley: SpaceX Orbital AI Compute to Be Cheaper Than Ground-Based NVIDIA
Morgan Stanley projects that SpaceX's orbital computing costs will fall below ground-based NVIDIA solutions by 2031, estimating $6.50 per kilowatt-hour annually for satellite compute.
Morgan Stanley estimates that the cost of compute power from SpaceX's orbital data centers will drop to $6.50 per kilowatt-hour annually by 2031. This projected cost undercuts the estimated $6.80 per kilowatt-hour for ground-based data centers utilizing NVIDIA's Blackwell GPUs.
SpaceX has designed its first AI-focused satellite, dubbed "AI1," capable of a peak compute load up to 150kW. These satellites are to be manufactured at SpaceX's Gigafactory in Texas. The company has requested authorization to launch up to one million satellites.
Orbital data centers offer distinct advantages, including radiative cooling in a vacuum, uninterrupted solar power, and planetary-scale orbital positioning. Morgan Stanley further projects that orbital compute costs could reach as low as $1.70 per kilowatt-hour annually by 2040. This would equate to an annual operating cost of $1.7 billion for a 1GW orbital data center, compared to an estimated $100 billion one-time construction cost for a comparable ground-based facility.