New Constructs values Anthropic at $150 billion, calls IPO 'absurd'
Research firm New Constructs has valued AI company Anthropic at $150 billion, labeling its upcoming IPO as "absurd." The firm sharply criticizes Anthropic's valuation and business model.
Independent research firm New Constructs has issued a critical assessment of AI company Anthropic, valuing it at $150 billion. The firm labeled Anthropic's planned initial public offering (IPO) as the "most absurd IPO of 2026," suggesting investors risk overvaluation.
New Constructs stated in its report that to achieve its target valuation, Anthropic's profits would need to double those of Nvidia, the world's most valuable tech company. Nvidia has reported net profits exceeding $190 billion over the past year. Meanwhile, reported figures indicate Anthropic's revenue was $4.6 billion in 2025, with the company incurring a net loss of $4.2 billion.
The research firm argues that Anthropic's growing operating losses, combined with competition from numerous open-source models, lead to the conclusion that the company lacks a viable business model. "It's clear that closed models will struggle to be profitable since the advent of open-source models," New Constructs stated.
New Constructs and its founder, David Trainer, have a history of accurately predicting IPO failures. Previously, the firm described coworking company WeWork as the "most absurd IPO of 2019." WeWork withdrew its IPO plans shortly after the report's release and later filed for bankruptcy.
New Constructs cautioned that while Anthropic's societal contributions exceed those of WeWork, its current $200 billion valuation presents significant risks to the U.S. capital markets. The firm suggests the IPO's purpose may be to provide liquidity to the company's backers rather than to create wealth for public market investors.
Anthropic has not yet commented on New Constructs' report.