Non-Bank Players May Capture 20% of Corporate & Investment Banking Revenues by 2030
A Boston Consulting Group report forecasts that non-bank financial institutions could capture 20% of global corporate and investment banking revenues by 2030, altering the capital markets landscape.
The corporate and investment banking (CIB) landscape is set for a significant shift in the coming five years, as non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) are poised to expand their reach in trading, advisory, and lending. Boston Consulting Group's (BCG) latest report projects that by 2030, NBFIs will account for 20% of global CIB revenues and 30% of trading volumes.
This projection comes as the overall CIB wallet is expected to grow substantially, potentially reaching over a trillion dollars by 2030. However, traditional banks face mounting pressure from agile competitors, digital platforms, and increasing geopolitical fragmentation. The report outlines three future scenarios and suggests portfolio strategies for resilience.
BCG's analysis highlights the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI), estimating it could free up 25% to 40% of corporate and investment banker capacity by 2030. Firms leading in AI adoption are moving beyond isolated pilot projects to enterprise-wide transformations.
The report urges CIB leaders to adopt a portfolio approach to strategy, focusing resources on maximizing core businesses, scaling high-return adjacencies, and making targeted investments in emerging domains. Bold moves in technology, infrastructure, and client coverage are deemed essential for banks to remain competitive in this evolving market.