Nordea: Sweden's Recession Is Over
Nordea Bank Abp's analysis indicates that Sweden's economy has recovered from recession. Growth has accelerated, and the economy is expected to surpass normal resource utilization next year.
Sweden's economy has emerged from recession, with growth picking up pace, according to Nordea Bank Abp's report on September 2, 2026. The bank's analysis shows that key economic indicators are normalizing, and the labor market is expected to follow suit. With continued stable growth, Sweden's economic resource utilization is projected to run slightly above normal next year.
The economy is nearing balance, with output levels returning towards their long-term potential. While unemployment has decreased, it remains elevated, and the share of underemployed workers is above average. Labor supply has increased, contributing to a higher employment rate, though this does not necessarily signal a tightening labor market. Overall, resource utilization in the labor market is gradually increasing.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has returned to its trend, and growth prospects are favorable. Nordea anticipates that the Riksbank will normalize its policy rate to 2.25% as resource utilization rises. In the longer term, economic growth is expected to slow to approximately 1.75% annually due to weaker population growth.
The assessment is based on Nordea's Economic Outlook: Resilience in motion, published on September 2, 2026. The report concludes that economic conditions are now close to balance, and the projected increase in resource utilization supports a normalization of monetary policy.