Polymarket Sees $600M in Trades After Election Outcomes

Prediction market Polymarket saw over $600 million in trading volume across two global election markets, with significant activity occurring after the election results were known. The volume was disproportionately concentrated on contracts related to losing candidates.

In Ethiopia, where Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party secured a landslide victory, trading on contracts related to his chief of staff, Shimelis Abdisa, reached over $41 million, while bets on Ahmed's win were only $173,000. The total volume for the Ethiopian market exceeded $285 million, with most of it allocated to losing candidates. Experts suggest this indicates market manipulation, as former trader Chris Park noted nearly $284 million came from pairs of accounts repeatedly trading with each other.

"It's obviously some form of volume manipulation," said economics professor Rajiv Sethi. Polymarket stated that its team flagged the activity, investigated, and blocked the accounts. The company did not respond to follow-up questions regarding the delay in action despite the high volume.

This unusual trading persisted for 123 days after the Ethiopian election, as Polymarket's rules stipulated resolution only after the prime minister's formal appointment. Similar anomalies were reported on a Romanian election market, where an outdated market remained open alongside a new one, leading to "dramatic" trading irregularities.