Predictable project pipelines could lower North Sea offshore wind costs
A new DNV study indicates that predictable project pipelines, industrialization, and longer turbine production runs could reduce the levelized cost of energy from North Sea offshore wind by up to 28% by 2050.
A joint industry study led by DNV has found that predictable project pipelines, industrialization, and longer turbine production runs could reduce the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) from North Sea offshore wind projects by up to 28% by 2050 under a high-volume deployment scenario.
The analysis, involving eight companies across the European offshore wind supply chain, modeled three scenarios from 2025 to 2050. Under current business-as-usual conditions, LCOE is projected to fall by approximately 5% by 2035. Longer production runs could increase this reduction to 14% by 2035 and 25% by 2050.
In the highest-volume scenario, cost reductions reach about 19% by 2035 and 28% by 2050. The study attributes most savings to lower capital expenditure for turbines and project development, supplemented by installation and foundation efficiencies.
The report calls for predictable auction schedules, visible project pipelines, earlier standardization of design interfaces, and targeted supply-chain investment. It warns that irregular project flow currently poses a greater risk than insufficient manufacturing capacity, although ports and installation capacity could become bottlenecks under accelerated deployment.