Quantum Technology Bubble Has Grown Large, Warns Chinese Academic

Pan Jianwei, an academician at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, has cautioned that the capital market surrounding quantum technology has entered a phase of significant exuberance. Speaking at the Future Forum on July 12, he noted the high level of investment enthusiasm but stressed the growing risk of a substantial bubble.

"We must ensure the healthy future development of quantum information technology by removing the current bubbles," Pan stated. He proposed the establishment of a national-level evaluation body to set a "gold standard" for assessing quantum technology firms, measuring metrics like single-qubit accuracy or the achievement of quantum computational advantage. He drew parallels to the commercial space industry, where companies must meet stringent requirements like rocket recovery capabilities.

Pan expressed concern that without proper oversight, genuine quantum technology pioneers could be unfairly discredited as charlatans in the future. He previously highlighted unrealistic promotion as a major impediment to the commercialization of quantum technology.

The sector has seen substantial funding, with around ten billion yuan invested in domestic quantum technology projects. Pan estimates that specialized quantum computers for materials science and antiferromagnetic simulations could see rapid development in the next three to five years. However, he believes that developing general-purpose, fault-tolerant quantum computers faces significant fundamental scientific challenges and may take at least another decade, or possibly two, before widespread commercialization is feasible.