Quilty Space report warns of persistent launch vehicle shortage through 2030
A new report from analytics firm Quilty Space indicates a significant deficit in global rocket launch capacity that is expected to persist for the next five years.
Outside of China, the global space industry faces a shortfall of approximately 150 rocket launches between now and 2030, according to data from Quilty Space. This gap in capacity threatens to disrupt operations for both commercial satellite operators and civil space agencies.
The situation could worsen significantly if demand from the U.S. military increases and SpaceX proceeds with plans to phase out its current Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy fleets. Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space, stated that the crisis is more severe than previously estimated and is unlikely to resolve until the late 2030s.
This ongoing supply chain bottleneck highlights a critical dependency on existing heavy-lift providers. The findings suggest that the launch sector will struggle to meet global demand for at least the next decade, potentially delaying infrastructure deployments in orbit.