SAS Report: Sustainable Fuel Shortage Could Trigger Aviation Energy Crisis
A new SAS Aviation Insights report warns that Europe faces a sustainable jet fuel (e-SAF) shortage by 2030, potentially raising airfares and forcing route cuts. Several full-scale production plants are needed, none of which exist yet.
SAS has issued a warning that Europe could face an energy crisis due to a significant shortfall in sustainable jet fuel (e-SAF) supply, as mandated by the ReFuelEU regulation. A report by SAS Aviation Insights indicates that the current production and investment trajectory is insufficient to meet the escalating demand projected for 2030 and beyond.
The report highlights that while demand for e-SAF will surge from 2030, no European e-SAF project has yet reached a final investment decision. Scandinavian aviation alone is estimated to require 36,000 tons in 2030, escalating to over 160,000 tons by 2035 and 330,000 tons by 2040. This projected need equates to approximately five full-scale production facilities, none of which are currently operational or planned to completion.
In the anticipated tight market, the price of e-SAF is expected to approach the costs associated with non-compliance with EU mandates, potentially several times higher than conventional fossil jet fuel. Such price increases would inevitably raise operating costs for airlines, thereby impacting airfares and potentially reducing air connectivity across Europe.
SAS suggests two potential scenarios: either Europe scales back its ambitions under the ReFuelEU mandate, or it accelerates e-SAF production through targeted policy support, investment incentives, and infrastructure development. Without swift and decisive action, the report concludes, Europe risks a prolonged imbalance in sustainable aviation fuel supply, leaving the sector vulnerable to market volatility and regulatory uncertainties.