Senators Demand CFTC Action on Wildfire Prediction Markets
US senators have written to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), questioning its plans to crack down on prediction markets that allow bets on wildfires.
A group of US senators has sent a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), inquiring about the agency’s plans to address prediction markets that offer contracts for individuals to bet on wildfires.
The senators, representing Oregon, California, Nevada, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, stated that "offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering, all so the rich and powerful can profit." They argue this practice is unethical and potentially harmful.
The document specifically cites Polymarket for hosting bets in January 2025 concerning wildfires in Los Angeles. It also mentions another website that reportedly accepts "simulated bets" exclusively on California wildfires.
The senators' concern centers on the potential for such markets to incentivize or create an ethically questionable environment for speculating on catastrophic events.