Smartphones Under $200 to See Significant Decline by 2030
Global annual shipments of smartphones priced under $200 are projected to fall by over 230 million units by 2030, according to a Counterpoint Research report. The overall smartphone market, however, is expected to recover.
The smartphone market is set to diverge by price segment, with a notable decline expected in shipments of devices priced under $200. Counterpoint Research's latest forecast indicates that annual shipments for this entry-level segment will decrease by more than 230 million units between 2025 and 2030, a reduction of approximately 40 percent.
Concurrently, the overall global smartphone market is anticipated to gradually recover, with shipment volumes nearing 2025 levels by the end of 2030. This shift is attributed to structural impacts from market slowdowns between 2026 and 2027, rising component costs, increased minimum configuration thresholds, and manufacturers prioritizing strategic markets over entry-level segments.
Consumers are expected to either upgrade to more expensive models or extend the lifespan of their current devices. The used phone market and a slower pace of first-time smartphone buyers, particularly in emerging economies, will also impact demand for lower-priced phones.
By 2030, global smartphone shipments are predicted to rebound to around 1.2 billion units, only slightly below 2025 figures. While shipments of devices under $200 are expected to decrease by approximately 40%, those priced at $200 and above are projected to grow by about 26%.
The report highlights that this trend could slow the adoption of mobile internet in low- and middle-income countries where device cost remains a key barrier. The shrinking supply of sub-$200 phones may delay the transition from feature phones to smartphones for many users and present challenges for operators and governments in expanding connectivity and services.