S&P 500 Bull Market Turns Four, Historical Data Focuses on Next Year

The S&P 500 index marked its fourth anniversary in October 2026, having risen 118 percent since the current bull market commenced in October 2022. This performance ranks as the third-best start to a bull market at its four-year stage over the past seven decades.

Historical data reveals that only two previous bull markets demonstrated stronger gains by their fourth birthday. Across the last seventy years, bull markets have averaged a total return of 192 percent. While longer rallies, such as 1987-2000 (582%) and 2009-2020 (401%), have yielded higher overall returns, the current market could still be in its early stages.

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, noted that the last time a bull market failed to reach its fifth birthday after surpassing three years was in the early 1960s. Over the past 50 years, bull markets that reached their fourth birthday have, on average, continued for eight years. The S&P 500 is currently trading near its 52-week high, having climbed over 17 percent in the past year.

Investor sentiment has been influenced by concerns over the market's narrow, tech-heavy composition, geopolitical uncertainties, and elevated oil prices. Despite these factors, forward valuations for many popular artificial intelligence stocks have decreased over the past year, making them relatively cheaper.