S&P predicts decline in video game console shipments
S&P Global Market Intelligence's Kagan division forecasts a significant drop in combined sales for the top three video game console manufacturers by 2026.
The combined sales of the top three video game console manufacturers are projected to fall by 19.5% to 33.9 million units in 2026, according to a July report from Kagan, a division of S&P Global Market Intelligence. Sales are expected to decline further to 27.1 million units in 2027.
Kagan expects the overall video game console industry sales to begin recovering between 2028 and 2030, reaching 37.4 million units by the end of that period. This mid-term forecast is predicated on the easing of component crises by 2028, which would allow Sony and Microsoft to release next-generation hardware at prices between $600 and $800.
The report predicts that the Nintendo Switch 2 will sell 17.1 million units in its second year, comparable to the performance of the original Switch and Wii in their respective second years. Meanwhile, Sony's PlayStation 5 series sales are expected to drop by nearly 23% to 13.2 million units in the current year.
For the next console generation, Kagan forecasts PlayStation 6 sales to reach 4 million units in its first year (2028), increasing to 17.2 million units by 2030. Microsoft's "Project Helix" is projected to sell 2 million units in its launch year and reach 7.3 million by 2030.