SpaceX Rocket Stage to Impact Moon on August 5

A spent stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is expected to impact the Moon on August 5, around 2:35 PM UTC, near the Einstein Crater. The event may be observable from certain locations on Earth using ground-based telescopes.

The prediction for the rocket stage's trajectory and future path was made by Bill Gray, developer of the astronomical software Project Pluto. He calculated the impact after inputting data into his program to predict the rocket's orbit.

The rocket stage originated from SpaceX's Firefly Blue Ghost mission, launched on January 15, 2025. The launch carried Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost lunar lander and Japan's ispace company's Hakuto-R lunar lander. After successfully deploying the landers, the rocket stage depleted its fuel and has been adrift in space since.

The stage measures approximately 11.9 meters (39 feet) in length and 4 meters (13 feet) in width, weighing about 4,000 kg (4 tons). It is projected to hit the lunar surface at roughly 8,690 km/h (5,400 mph). While larger than most natural lunar impactors, its hollow structure and relatively moderate speed mean the impact's effect on the Moon is expected to be minor.

This event presents astronomers with a rare opportunity to observe an artificial object colliding with the Moon in real-time. Researchers can study the resulting ejecta and dust plume, and assess potential impacts from space debris. Optimal viewing conditions are anticipated in areas experiencing full night at the time of impact, suggesting favorable observation prospects in South and Central America.