STIF Stock Plummets After Losing Tesla Contract

STIF's stock suffered a significant crash on the Paris stock exchange Friday after Tesla announced it will no longer utilize STIF's solutions for its new Megapack 3 energy storage system beyond 2027. The stock price dropped by as much as 60% before midday. This market reaction is exceptional and reflects investors' altered perception of the specialist in explosion protection equipment.

The loss of the Tesla contract is a major blow to STIF, as the company has been a key driver of the firm's Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) business growth since 2023. STIF now projects no further revenue from Tesla after 2027. For 2026, STIF still anticipates approximately €110 million in revenue and €18 million in EBITDA. However, from 2027 onwards, without Tesla, the revenue target is reduced to €100 million with an EBITDA margin of around 15%.

The company plans to adjust its production capacity, investments, and cost structure to mitigate the impact of reduced activity on its profitability. The loss of Tesla also leads STIF to revise its long-term ambitions: by 2030, the company now aims for €170 million in revenue and an EBITDA margin of approximately 17%, down from previous targets of €200 million and over 20%.

Analysts have responded to the downturn. Portzamparc downgraded its rating from 'Buy' to 'Hold' and lowered its price target from €78.30 to €31. Invest Securities deemed the loss of the Tesla contract a very unfavorable signal for the company's equity story and expressed doubt about the likelihood of multiple expansion in the medium term. While STIF is not in immediate peril, its stock is expected to face pressure from this announcement.

The post-Tesla era begins painfully for STIF. Future orders from other global BESS players, such as BYD and CATL, will be crucial in determining whether the loss of Tesla represents a significant but surmountable setback, or a more lasting break in the company's growth trajectory.