Study: Battery-electric trucks to dominate future road freight

Gothenburg – Battery-electric trucks are poised to dominate future road freight, but hydrogen technology will retain a significant role, particularly for the heaviest vehicles operating over long distances. This is according to a new global study of road freight systems conducted at Chalmers University of Technology.

The research, published in Advances in Applied Energy, analyzed future global road freight systems, considering costs, technology choices, energy supply, and climate targets. The findings show that battery-electric trucks are the most cost-effective solution across most truck segments, especially for regional transport. For the heaviest trucks with long daily driving ranges, however, hydrogen continues to play an important role.

Researchers emphasize the benefit of pursuing multiple fossil-free solutions concurrently. "Overall, our research suggests there are strong reasons to pursue multiple fossil-free solutions as the transport sector decarbonizes. Relying on parallel pathways can reduce the risk that scaling up a single solution creates new challenges related to limited resources such as minerals, land or water," stated Maria Grahn, Associate Professor in Environmental and Energy Sciences at Chalmers.

The study also explored the impact of faster cost reductions for battery and hydrogen technologies. Lower battery costs increasingly favor a larger share of battery-electric vehicles, including in heavier segments. Conversely, equivalent cost reductions for hydrogen technologies had a limited impact on technology adoption.

An unexpected finding was that the model often favored hybrid solutions combining batteries and fuel cells to balance driving range, energy efficiency, and overall cost. A crucial prerequisite for the large-scale success of either technology, however, is a substantial expansion of fossil-free electricity generation globally, necessitating continued investments in wind and solar power.