Study finds 1°C temperature rise increases heat stroke risk for outdoor workers by 250%
Research led by Singapore scientists reveals that a 1°C rise in daily average temperature more than doubles the risk of heat-related illness for those working outdoors.
A study conducted by researchers at Duke-NUS Medical School and Singapore General Hospital has identified a significant correlation between rising temperatures and heat-related illnesses among outdoor workers. The findings indicate that for every 1°C increase in the daily average temperature, the risk of heat stroke and other heat-related conditions spikes by 250%.
By mapping medical records from 2009 to 2023 against data from 60 weather stations, the research team demonstrated that heat risk is cumulative. If a 1°C temperature increase persists over a three-day period, the likelihood of a worker suffering a heat injury nearly quadruples by the third day. This study is the first in the region to quantify these risks over such an extended duration.
The majority of reported cases involved construction workers, with 85% categorized as severe, including heat stroke and heat exhaustion. Lead researcher Adjunct Assistant Professor Joel Aik noted that these figures likely under-report the true incidence, as milder cases often go untreated or unreported.
Published in the journal Urban Climate, the research highlights the urgent need for occupational health awareness in tropical climates. The authors emphasize that these risks appear even during moderate temperature fluctuations, challenging the assumption that heat danger is limited to record-breaking heatwaves.