Study Resolves Monsoon Puzzle, Warns of Risks to Fisheries
University of Sussex climate scientists contributed to research solving a long-standing paradox in the South Asian monsoon. The findings suggest rising temperatures in Southern Africa could weaken Arabian Sea upwelling, posing risks to regional fisheries.
Climate scientists at the University of Sussex have contributed to a new international study that resolves a long-standing paradox concerning the South Asian summer monsoon. The research demonstrates that monsoon rainfall over South Asia and upwelling in the Arabian Sea are influenced by different hemispheric climate drivers.
The study, involving the University of Sussex, Nanjing University, and Ohio State University, found that Northern Hemisphere solar forcing primarily strengthens monsoon rainfall over South Asia. Conversely, warming in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly over Southern Africa, can weaken Arabian Sea upwelling through atmospheric teleconnections.
As the upwelling in the Arabian Sea supports one of the world's most productive marine ecosystems, the findings raise concerns. They suggest that rising temperatures outside of South Asia could affect marine productivity, fish stocks, and livelihoods across the region.
Published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the research combined proxy records from caves and marine sediments with climate simulations spanning the past 150,000 years. The study also highlights risks associated with climate intervention strategies, such as solar radiation management, if they alter solar forcing unevenly across regions.