UK government confirms £400 billion AI economic forecast relied on Google report
The UK government has acknowledged that its £400 billion AI economic impact projection originated from a report commissioned by Google, far exceeding its own internal estimates.
For two years, the UK government cited a £400 billion economic boost from AI to address public concerns regarding job losses and stagnation. UK AI Minister Kanishka Narayan recently admitted that this figure was significantly higher than government projections, revealing it was derived solely from a 2023 report commissioned by Google.
Official government estimates now place the potential economic benefit of AI and data investment by 2030 at between £55 billion and £140 billion, with a central estimate of £120 billion. Despite having these lower figures since at least November 2025, various government departments continued to utilize the £400 billion figure in public communications for several months.
Representatives from PF Global, the firm that produced the Google-commissioned report, attributed the disparity to the government's slower-than-expected rate of AI adoption. The disclosure has prompted criticism from lawmakers, with Science and Technology Committee Chair Dame Chi Onwurah warning that relying on inflated industry-backed figures undermines the case for public sector digital transformation.