US Efforts to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Continue Amid Costly Iran Conflict
The United States has made progress in easing Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz and nearly halting its oil exports, but the conflict initiated by the U.S. and Israel is far from over with no diplomatic resolution in sight.
In recent weeks, the United States has succeeded in loosening Iran's grip over the Strait of Hormuz while virtually shutting down Iran's own oil exports, accelerating its economic free fall. However, the war launched by the U.S. and Israel in February, intended to last a few weeks, is still far from over, and the stalemate is costly for both sides.
The mounting economic pressure on Iran has yet to stoke an uprising. If its leaders are backed into a corner, they may opt for military escalation rather than capitulation. Iran's allies, the Houthi movement in Yemen, have meanwhile stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia, helping to push oil prices back up.
The price of Brent crude surged above $100 this week, and diesel hit a record high, potentially stoking inflation. Analysts note that the U.S. is not winning the war with Iran, despite successes in weakening Iran's economy and facilitating shipping through the strait.
Iran's oil exports have dropped significantly, while exports from other countries have increased. This relies on a major U.S. military deployment in the strait, which has strained military resources. The conflict has already cost U.S. taxpayers over $37.5 billion and resulted in 18 U.S. service member deaths.
Tehran could escalate in other ways. The Iran-backed Houthis have launched attacks on Saudi oil facilities, threatening its exports. Experts suggest Tehran has repeatedly signaled a willingness to escalate in response to U.S. pressure rather than back down.