US Election 2024: Analysis of Potential Consequences Under Biden or Trump

Investmentpunk Academy GmbH has released an analysis examining the potential consequences of the 2024 US presidential election, focusing on how a victory for either Donald Trump or Joe Biden might affect the economy, geopolitics, and financial markets.

The analysis suggests that the election will likely be decided in a few key swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Economically, the differences between the candidates' policies may be smaller than anticipated, as both tend to pursue debt-driven growth and protectionist measures.

Gerald Hörhan, CEO of Investmentpunk Academy, notes that Trump would likely implement tax cuts, reduce regulations, and seek negotiated solutions to conflicts such as the war in Ukraine. In Biden's case, his age and potential health issues could lead to Vice President Kamala Harris assuming the presidency, possibly resulting in a more progressive economic direction.

Hörhan estimates that, as of mid-2024, Trump is winning the favor of major financial donors. He highlights the fragility of the electoral system and the deep political divisions in the United States, suggesting these factors could lead to significant global repercussions regardless of the winner.