US Vehicle Sales Unlikely to Reach Pre-Pandemic Levels This Decade

U.S. light-vehicle sales are not expected to regain pre-pandemic levels by the end of the decade, a new forecast from Mobility Global indicates. Sales are projected to reach 16.1 million units in 2026 and only 16.4 million by 2030, remaining significantly below the roughly 17 million units sold annually before the pandemic.

Analysts speaking at a Mobility Global media briefing identified affordability as the single biggest challenge facing consumers, fundamentally altering the market environment. While supply chain shortages impacted the market post-pandemic, affordability is now cited as the main factor constraining sales. "We don't see the U.S. returning to pre-pandemic levels of volumes," said Peter Nagle, Associate Director for Americas Demand Forecasting.

Automakers are navigating geopolitical instability and shifting trade policies, which are also reshaping industry strategies. Despite a loosening of emissions regulations leading to some battery-electric vehicle (BEV) program cancellations, Mobility Global forecasts BEV assembly in North America to surpass one million units again in 2027. Internal combustion engine and hybrid vehicles are expected to remain central to the market.

The forecast projects North American assembly of full hybrid electric vehicles (FHEV) to exceed 3 million units in 2027, a 25% annual increase. By 2030, nearly a third of all North American light-vehicle assembly is expected to be FHEV.

Mobility Global, which recently separated from S&P Global to focus on the mobility sector, has launched its FAST (Forecasting and Simulation Tool) to help stakeholders analyze market changes. The company emphasizes the increasing value of rapid adaptation in an uncertain market.